Consumer spending fell 0.2% in December from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Friday.Read More
U.S. GDP Ticks Up, but Recession Fears Remain
The U.S. economy grew modestly in the fourth quarter of 2022, despite signs of weak domestic demand, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Thursday. In the fourth quarter, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by roughly 2.9%, down slightly from 3.2% in the third quarter, the BEA reported. Recession concerns among economists linger, however, amid fears that the Federal Reserve’s campaign of interest rate hikes — intended to reduce economic demand to slow inflation — will lead to reduced spending and layoffs, The Wall Street Journal reported.Read More
New Survey Shows Wisconsin Businesses See Recession Ahead
Battered by ongoing high inflation, a majority of Wisconsin businesses see a recession ahead, according to Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce’s latest Wisconsin Employer Survey.
WMC’s survey finds 60 percent of businesses believe the Badger State economy is headed for a recession this year. On the surface, the number appears to be an improvement from last summer’s survey when 71 percent of respondents worried a recession was looming. But Nick Novak, WMC’s vice president of communications and marketing, said more employers moved from being sure about a recession to uncertain about the economy.Read More
Big Banks Predict Significant Economic Downturn in 2023: POLL
Of the 23 major financial institutions that work directly with the Federal Reserve, 16 anticipate a recession within the next 12 months, with two anticipating one the year after, according to a survey published by The Wall Street Journal Monday.
These institutions, which range from Bank of America to UBS, note that Americans are spending their savings, banks are heightening lending standards and the housing market is in a decline, all classic warning signs that a recession is impending, the WSJ reported. All of this is being exacerbated, the banks say, by the Fed’s historically aggressive pace of interest rate hikes, designed to blunt stubbornly persistent inflation.Read More
Special Report: Latino Youth Vote Comes into Focus after Democrats Sweep Gen Z
by Gelet Martínez Fragela As Republicans continue to grapple with a devastating loss among young adults from the 2022 midterm elections, some statistics suggest the GOP has an opportunity to pick up some traction with the Latino youth vote as their concerns could grow with age about crime, inflation…Read More
JPMorgan Strategists Predict Stock Plunge, Recession as Early as First Half of 2023
Strategists at JPMorgan Chase predicted a recession as soon as the first half of 2023, coupled with a major stock market slide, in a research note Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
The strategists expected the S&P 500 stock index to decline roughly 12% in the first half of next year, before rebounding to end 2023 up 3% as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve slows or reverses its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes, Bloomberg reported. Despite the expectation that the stock market will rebound by the end of next year, the analysts anticipated that U.S. corporate earnings would fall roughly 9% as demand slumps and economic conditions limit companies’ ability to set higher prices.Read More
Goldman Sachs Issues Stock Market Warning
U.S. investors are significantly underestimating the risk of a recession, potentially increasing the impact of a recession next year, economists at Goldman Sachs warned in a Monday research note, according to Bloomberg.
Researchers at Goldman estimate a 39 percent chance of a slowdown in U.S. growth, but risk assets only account for an 11 percent chance, Bloomberg reported. By underestimating the chance of a recession, investors are increasing their exposure to the effects of “recession scares” in 2023, the analysts warned.Read More
Poll: Small Business Owners Trust Republicans to Help Them Amid Recession Fears
Small business owners believe they’ll benefit from Republican victories in the upcoming elections, according to a new poll.
Most small business employers believe the country is in a recession, and fear that economic conditions will put them out of business, with a majority believing a Republican victory will help them, according to the survey conducted by Rasmussen and the Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF). The poll reflects a broader concern among voters about economic conditions and historic levels of inflation under the Biden administration.Read More
Investors Show Concern over Defaulting Mortgages as Possible Recession Looms
Investors are reportedly concerned about mortgage defaults and are unloading Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities, amid record-high interest rates and a rapidly cooling housing market.
Mortgage rates last week hit a two-decade high of 6.92%, a trend that has slowed the booming, often over-priced real estate market during the height of the pandemic.Read More
Expect Layoffs and a Recession If Fed Doesn’t Let Up, Bank of America Exec Warns
If the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its policy of aggressive interest rate hikes, the U.S. could lose hundreds of thousands of jobs, spiking unemployment, according to a Bank of America analysis, CNN reported.
Bank of America’s Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen expects roughly six months of relatively high unemployment and a”mild recession,” as the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes blunt consumer demand, he told CNN Monday. However, Gapen also noted that the typical bounceback seen after a recession might be delayed if the Fed, which has been incredibly hawkish on interest rates, refuses to reduce rates.Read More
Commentary: Federal Reserve’s False Assumptions Push the Economy into Recession
Based on its assumptions, the Federal Reserve is doing everything right by raising interest rates rapidly after years of easy money. It will certainly succeed in its goal of “cooling down” the economy.
Unfortunately, the Fed’s basic assumptions are wrong, and it has already begun reducing Americans’ standard of living, as indicated by this week’s Commerce Department report showing the nation’s gross domestic product fell for the second quarter in a row, meeting the common definition of a recession.Read More
Biden Has 38 Percent Approval in New Poll; 61 Percent of Likely Voters Say We’re in a Recession
Joe Biden’s approval rating is holding steady at 38 percent in the latest poll conducted by Insider Advantage for the Center for American Greatness. The national survey of 800 likely voters showed that 60 percent of respondents disapproved of Biden’s job performance, and 5 percent had no opinion or were undecided.Read More
Commentary: Amid Recession Fears, Economically Free States Continue to Outperform
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently responded to questions about California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ads airing in Florida, “It’s almost hard to drive people out of a place like California given all their natural advantages, and yet they are finding a way to do it.” He noted that California is hemorrhaging its population because of bad progressive economic policies so that they could be more free
Florida ranks third in the nation for economic freedom, according to the Fraser Institute. And California ranks second to last.Read More
‘It’s An Absurd Argument’: Economists Take Apart One of Biden’s Favorite Talking Points
The Biden administration’s oft-touted talking point that employment has boomed under the administration is misleading and instead simply a natural recovery from pandemic losses, economists told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Facing consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, sky-high inflation and plummeting consumer sentiment, the Biden administration has routinely cited a low unemployment rate and strong on-paper jobs creation as positive results of President Joe Biden’s economic stewardship. But the notion that these figures represent booming job creation is misleading since the economy has merely rebounded by adding back jobs that were lost during the pandemic and has still yet to reach pre-pandemic levels, economists told the DCNF.Read More
Commentary: Biden Opts to Redefine ‘Recession’ Rather than Beat It
TWIL: What everybody thought constituted a recession no longer does.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.9 percent in the second quarter. This follows a 1.6 percent contraction in the first quarter.Read More
The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric Just Surged in Another Warning Sign for the Economy
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, continued to surge in June, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The PCE index was up 6.8% for the year ending in June, an increase from the 6.3% that it was at in both April and May, the BEA announced. PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation because it is “just better at capturing the inflation people actually face in their lives,” and the central bank endeavors to keep it at 2%, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.Read More
Biden Administration Accused of Gaslighting Nation with ‘Soviet Level Propaganda’ After Attempting to Redefine Recession
by Debra Heine The White House is being accused of gaslighting the American people with “Soviet levels of propaganda” as Biden officials attempt to change the definition of recession amid economic data that shows the United States is entering into a recession. A recession is traditionally defined as two…Read More
Commentary: Historical Recession Signals Are Flashing Red
Unemployment insurance continuing claims increased by 122,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from July 2 to July 9 to 1.45 million, the latest U.S. Department of Labor data shows, as multiple historical recession signals are flashing red.
The number comes as initial unemployment claims have continued ticking upward on both on a seasonally adjusted basis. Since mid-March, when weekly claims hit a low of 166,000, now they are up over 251,000.Read More
Economist: 30 Percent Chance That U.S. Enters a Recession Within a Year’s Time
A Goldman Sachs economist says there is a 30% probability of the U.S. entering a recession within one year and 48% within two years.
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. economist David Mericle outlined the probability of a recession at an event Tuesday and said that the likelihood of a recession would decrease if the U.S. had not entered one within two years.Read More
Federal Reserve Chair Powell Says During Senate Hearing That a Recession Is Possible
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. could enter into a recession when questioned Wednesday during a Senate Banking Committee hearing.
Confronted about 40-year-high inflation and the Fed raising interest rates in response, Powell said he couldn’t know for sure but said a recession, defined as a significant decline in economic activity over time, is possible.Read More
Recession Worries Rising Among Economists
Recession worries are rising among economists as inflation continues at high levels.
A top Moody’s economist has predicted a recession could hit within the next two years, but others are saying it could happen sooner.Read More
Commentary: A Biden Recession Is Virtually Guaranteed After 10-Year, 2-Year Treasuries Spread Inverts as Economy Overheats from Rampant Inflation
The spread between 10-year treasuries and 2-year treasuries, a leading recession indicator whose inversions have predicted almost all of the U.S. economic recessions in modern history, on March 31 inverted for the first time since Sept. 2019.
When the 10-year, 2-year spread inverts, a recession tends to result on average 14 months afterward, sometimes sooner, sometimes later. The one time there was a head fake on the 10-year, 2-year was in the mid-1990s at a time when inflation was much lower Visit Site than it is now.
As an aside, potentially the Sept. 2019 inversion might have ended up being a premature indicator, too, but then Covid and global economic lockdowns in early 2020 went ahead and ensured a recession even if one was not due. On the other hand, at that point it had been 11 years since the prior recession and so the business cycle was going to end sooner or later.Read More
Commentary: Seven Major Failures of the Biden Presidency
With President Joe Biden set to deliver his first State of the Union address on Tuesday night, it’s a good time to ask: How has Biden done as president and what is the actual state of our union?
According to the American people, things aren’t going great.
A CNN poll in early February asked Americans what they thought of Biden’s presidency and what he’s done right since entering office Jan. 20, 2021.Read More